AI model task length
METR's scatter plot drew 311K views on X: 2.0x its typical post and #7 of 26 METR charts we track by views. Read Oct 10, 2026.
We estimate that Claude Sonnet 4.5 has a 50%-time-horizon of around 1 hr 53 min (95% confidence interval of 50 to 235 minutes) on our agentic multi-step software engineering tasks. This estimate is lower than the current highest time-horizo
Why it spread
This post spread because it gave a clear, self-explaining estimate that Claude Sonnet 4.5 has a 50%-time-horizon of around 1 hr 53 min, with a 95% confidence interval of 50 to 235 minutes, and noted this is lower than the current highest time-horizon point estimate of around 2 hr 15 min, drawing 623 likes, 69 reposts, 49 quotes, 157 saves and 310,971 views.
What worked
- The post explains itself, stating the estimate, the confidence interval and the comparison in plain words so readers need no extra context.
- It invites discussion through many quotes, with 49 quotes placing it in the top quarter for quote rate.
- It pairs a scatter chart showing AI model task length growing exponentially over time with a branded source line and high self-labelling, which builds trust and makes the finding easy to share.
What to borrow
We could present our own chart with a single headline estimate, its uncertainty range and a direct comparison to the previous best, then let the chart show the long-run trend.
Careful
Do not over-read the single point estimate or treat the confidence interval as precise, and do not assume the same reach will follow from the format alone.
Written by our analysis model from the measured numbers above, not by METR.
Make it yours
Your numbers, the bar chart way.
Starts from the real numbers of "Task length (at 50% success rate)" by METR. Replace every number with yours before you post. Make one like this, step by step
Free pictures carry a small "Made with ViralChart" line. That line is how other people find us.
API · Max
Use this chart via API
On the Max plan you can pull this chart's numbers with the provenance of each one, as JSON or CSV, with its redraw spec, or call it from an agent over MCP. Chart id ebd7b71c875e.
| Path | Returns | Plan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GET | /api/v1/charts/ebd7b71c875e | Title, publisher, date, form, point count; with a Max key, the data link | Open |
| GET | /api/v1/charts/ebd7b71c875e/data | Every point with its provenance and confidence, plus the redraw spec. Add ?format=csv for CSV | Max |
| GET | /api/v1/charts/ebd7b71c875e/render?view=1 | The draw-only view this page uses | Open |
| POST | /mcp | Tool get_chart_data with this id, for Claude, Cursor and other agents | Max |
curl -s https://viral-chart.com/api/v1/charts/ebd7b71c875e/data \
-H "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"claude mcp add --transport http viralchart https://viral-chart.com/mcp \
--header "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"60 requests a minute per key; over that you get 429 with Retry-After. Up to 5 keys per account, made on your account page and shown once. Without Max, the data route answers 402 with a link to the plans. The numbers describe a chart its publisher owns, and every file carries a license note.
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Questions people ask
How far did METR's "AI model task length" chart travel?
310,971 views, 623 likes, 69 reposts and 157 saves on X, read Oct 10, 2026. A normal post from @METR_Evals gets about 153K views.
What kind of chart is it?
A scatter plot. AI model task length grows exponentially over time.
Can I use METR's chart?
Use the format, not the picture. The chart, logo and design belong to METR. ViralChart redraws the chart type with your numbers and words, and credits the original publisher.