1. Chart data
  2. Task length (at 50% success-time horizon)
METRScatter plot · 14 points · METR

Task length (at 50% success-time horizon)

The numbers behind a chart METR published, redrawn natively. Check the original, study the data, then make your own.

Estimated from the image 53%All chart data
Chart by METR. Source: x.com

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The numbers

First 10 of 14 points are free
GroupSeriesxValue (min)SourceConf.
GPT-2Task length20192Estimate0.97
GPT-3Task length2020~10Estimate0.30
GPT-3.5Task length2022~30Estimate0.30
GPT-4Task length2023~100Estimate0.30
GPT-4oTask length2023.5200Estimate0.97
o1Task length2024.5~300Estimate0.30
o3Task length2025~500Estimate0.30
Claude Opus 4.5Task length2025.5289Estimate0.97
GPT-5.1-Codex-MaxGPT-5.1-Codex-Max2025.5~500Estimate0.50
Train adversarially robust image modelTrain adversarially robust image model2019~240Estimate0.50

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The full table, the JSON, a CSV and the agent skill file for this chart. These are Max in the plan; while this is a prototype your email unlocks them.

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Train classifierTrain classifier2019~60Estimate0.50
Find fact on webFind fact on web2019~4Estimate0.50
Count words in passageCount words in passage2019~2Estimate0.50
Answer questionAnswer question2019~0.25Estimate0.50
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JSONAgent skill file

API · Max

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On the Max plan you can pull this chart's numbers with the provenance of each one, as JSON or CSV, with its redraw spec, or call it from an agent over MCP. Chart id 44e8ba0e6c7b.

See the Max planAPI docs
PathReturnsPlan
GET/api/v1/charts/44e8ba0e6c7bTitle, publisher, date, form, point count; with a Max key, the data linkOpen
GET/api/v1/charts/44e8ba0e6c7b/dataEvery point with its provenance and confidence, plus the redraw spec. Add ?format=csv for CSVMax
GET/api/v1/charts/44e8ba0e6c7b/render?view=1The draw-only view this page usesOpen
POST/mcpTool get_chart_data with this id, for Claude, Cursor and other agentsMax
curlMax
curl -s https://viral-chart.com/api/v1/charts/44e8ba0e6c7b/data \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"
Claude CodeMax
claude mcp add --transport http viralchart https://viral-chart.com/mcp \
  --header "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"

60 requests a minute per key; over that you get 429 with Retry-After. Up to 5 keys per account, made on your account page and shown once. Without Max, the data route answers 402 with a link to the plans. The numbers describe a chart its publisher owns, and every file carries a license note.

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More data from METR

All chart data
Estimated from the imageTask length (at 50% tasks success Als can do) is doubling every 7 monthsMETR · Scatter plot · 7 pointsEstimated from the imageAverage speedup on kernel optimization tasks, by model and elicitation methodMETR · Line chart · 12 pointsEstimated from the imageOn 3.7 Sonnet real software writes code engineering that passes test cases, Claude but is not mergeableMETR · Bar chart · 2 pointsEstimated from the imageTask length (at 50% success-time-horizon)METR · Scatter plot · 19 pointsEstimated from the imageTask-5.4 (xhigh) has a 50% success-time-horizon of about 5.7 hours (95% CI: 3 hrs to 13.5 hrs)METR · Scatter plot · 11 pointsEstimated from the imageTask length 50%-time-horizon measurements were inflated by over-regularizationMETR · Line chart · 16 points

Questions people ask

How accurate are these numbers?

They are estimated from the image by two independent passes, with confidence 0.53 on a 0 to 1 scale. Printed numbers read well; values read off an axis can be a few percent off.

Can I reuse this data?

The numbers describe a chart that METR published. The image, layout and styling belong to them. Use the numbers with a credit to the publisher, and make your picture from your own data.

How do I get the file?

The JSON, CSV and agent skill file are under the email gate on this page. In this prototype they are static files at /api/charts/44e8ba0e6c7b.json and /api/charts/44e8ba0e6c7b.skill.md.