AI游戏胜率

AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history. At a given level of performance, cost has fallen ~47%/quarter since 2023. That’s 4× faster than DNA sequencing, 6× faster than compute, 1

Introducing Benchmark Reviews: our new initiative to audit AI benchmarks. We are launching with 15 benchmarks: 4 Verified, 9 Flawed, and 2 with not enough information for a review.

Total AI compute is doubling every 7 months. We tracked quarterly production of AI accelerators across all major chip designers. Since 2022, total compute has grown ~3.3x per year, enabling increasingly larger-scale mod

What will AI look like by 2030 if current trends hold? Our new report zooms in on two things: (1) whether scaling continues (compute, data, power, capital), and (2) the capabilities this enables, especially for scientif

We developed GATE: a model that shows how AI scaling and automation will impact growth. It predicts trillion‐dollar infrastructure investments, 30% annual growth, and full automation in decades. Tweak the parameters, t

We estimate AI infrastructure could soon support hundreds of millions or even billions of AI agents. At the high end, that’s enough to rival the working hours of the global human workforce. The exact number of agents de

98% of US households aren't paying for AI yet More charts in State of Markets II:

Call center jobs grew ~4% annually for 15 years Now they’re shrinking 4% annually Charts of the Week:

DeepSeek takes the lead: DeepSeek V3-0324 is now the highest scoring non-reasoning model This is the first time an open weights model is the leading non-reasoning model, a milestone for open source. DeepSeek V3-0324 ha

America has 16,876 machine shops. 83% employ fewer than 20 people. Just nine employ more than 500. New defense companies are moving from prototypes to mass production, and every missile, drone, ship, and rocket they ul

Memory is taking over Hyperscaler CapEx. In CY23 and CY24, memory was ~8% of total Hyperscaler spend. We estimate it hits 30% in CY26 and moves higher in CY27. That's a near-4x shift in just four years. (1/4) 🧵

Beef production has been the largest driver of deforestation this century. Over the last two decades, around 128 million hectares of forest have been cleared to make way for agriculture and forest plantations. That’s an