AI task time horizons
METR's scatter plot drew 1.2M views on X: 7.6x its typical post and #5 of 26 METR charts we track by views. Read Oct 10, 2026.
We estimate that GPT-5.2 with `high` (not `xhigh`) reasoning effort has a 50%-time-horizon of around 6.6 hrs (95% CI of 3 hr 20 min to 17 hr 30 min) on our expanded suite of software tasks. This is the highest estimate for a time horizon me
Why it spread
The post spread because it paired a striking headline number, a 50%-time-horizon of around 6.6 hrs with a 95% CI of 3 hr 20 min to 17 hr 30 min, with the claim that this is the highest estimate the team has reported, and it drew 1,163,023 views, 1,688 likes, 175 reposts, 124 quotes and 387 saves.
What worked
- It leads with one clear measured number and its uncertainty, so readers can grasp the result without reading the chart.
- It is self labelled and branded with a source line, which makes the estimate easy to attribute and share.
- It invites discussion through many quotes, and the independent author framing gives the result extra credibility.
What to borrow
We could publish our own chart with a single headline estimate, its confidence interval, and a plain statement of how it compares with our previous measurements.
Careful
Do not treat the quote volume as agreement, and do not over read a single estimate as a settled trend.
Written by our analysis model from the measured numbers above, not by METR.
Make it yours
Your numbers, the bar chart way.
Starts from the real numbers of "Task-5.2 (high) has a 50%-success-time-horizon of about 6.6 hrs (95% CI: 200 to 1050 min)" by METR. Replace every number with yours before you post. Make one like this, step by step
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API · Max
Use this chart via API
On the Max plan you can pull this chart's numbers with the provenance of each one, as JSON or CSV, with its redraw spec, or call it from an agent over MCP. Chart id f95335fb0b6d.
Approximate values. Our two readings of this chart agreed only in part (confidence 0.33 of 1), so check the original before you quote a number. The API marks it lowConfidence, and ?min_confidence=0.5 leaves it out.
| Path | Returns | Plan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GET | /api/v1/charts/f95335fb0b6d | Title, publisher, date, form, point count; with a Max key, the data link | Open |
| GET | /api/v1/charts/f95335fb0b6d/data | Every point with its provenance and confidence, plus the redraw spec. Add ?format=csv for CSV | Max |
| GET | /api/v1/charts/f95335fb0b6d/render?view=1 | The draw-only view this page uses | Open |
| POST | /mcp | Tool get_chart_data with this id, for Claude, Cursor and other agents | Max |
curl -s https://viral-chart.com/api/v1/charts/f95335fb0b6d/data \
-H "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"claude mcp add --transport http viralchart https://viral-chart.com/mcp \
--header "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"60 requests a minute per key; over that you get 429 with Retry-After. Up to 5 keys per account, made on your account page and shown once. Without Max, the data route answers 402 with a link to the plans. The numbers describe a chart its publisher owns, and every file carries a license note.
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Questions people ask
How far did METR's "AI task time horizons" chart travel?
1,163,023 views, 1,688 likes, 175 reposts and 387 saves on X, read Oct 10, 2026. A normal post from @METR_Evals gets about 153K views.
What kind of chart is it?
A scatter plot. AI task time horizons grow exponentially over model releases.
Can I use METR's chart?
Use the format, not the picture. The chart, logo and design belong to METR. ViralChart redraws the chart type with your numbers and words, and credits the original publisher.