AI model task time horizons
METR's scatter plot drew 181.5K views on X: 1.2x its typical post and #11 of 26 METR charts we track by views. Read Oct 10, 2026.
We estimate that GPT-5.3-Codex with reasoning effort `high` (not `xhigh`) has a 50%-time-horizon of around 6.5 hours (95% CI of 3 hrs to 17 hrs) on our suite of software tasks. OpenAI provided API access for this evaluation.
Why it spread
This post spread because it put a hot topic that week into a single self-explaining number, reaching 181,464 views, 864 likes, 69 reposts, 43 quotes and 140 saves, well above the account's typical 523 likes.
What worked
- The headline number is concrete and self-explaining: a 50%-time-horizon of around 6.5 hours with a 95% CI of 3 hrs to 17 hrs, so readers grasp the claim without decoding the chart.
- It rides a hot topic that week, and the scatter chart of model task time horizons growing with release date gives that topic a visual shape.
- It is branded, carries a source line, and the account has top quarter source reach and top quarter quote rate, so the post was positioned to travel.
What to borrow
We can frame our own charts the same way: lead with one plain-language estimate and its uncertainty range, then let a simple scatter of our metric against time carry the rest.
Careful
Do not over-read the engagement as proof the estimate is right, and do not copy the exact framing without our own comparable suite and access note.
Written by our analysis model from the measured numbers above, not by METR.
Make it yours
Your numbers, the bar chart way.
Starts from the real numbers of "Task-5.3-Codex (at high) has a 50%-time-horizon of about 6.5 hours (95% CI: 3 hrs to 17 hr" by METR. Replace every number with yours before you post. Make one like this, step by step
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API · Max
Use this chart via API
On the Max plan you can pull this chart's numbers with the provenance of each one, as JSON or CSV, with its redraw spec, or call it from an agent over MCP. Chart id c6e8017d4d91.
Approximate values. Our two readings of this chart agreed only in part (confidence 0.30 of 1), so check the original before you quote a number. The API marks it lowConfidence, and ?min_confidence=0.5 leaves it out.
| Path | Returns | Plan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GET | /api/v1/charts/c6e8017d4d91 | Title, publisher, date, form, point count; with a Max key, the data link | Open |
| GET | /api/v1/charts/c6e8017d4d91/data | Every point with its provenance and confidence, plus the redraw spec. Add ?format=csv for CSV | Max |
| GET | /api/v1/charts/c6e8017d4d91/render?view=1 | The draw-only view this page uses | Open |
| POST | /mcp | Tool get_chart_data with this id, for Claude, Cursor and other agents | Max |
curl -s https://viral-chart.com/api/v1/charts/c6e8017d4d91/data \
-H "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"claude mcp add --transport http viralchart https://viral-chart.com/mcp \
--header "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"60 requests a minute per key; over that you get 429 with Retry-After. Up to 5 keys per account, made on your account page and shown once. Without Max, the data route answers 402 with a link to the plans. The numbers describe a chart its publisher owns, and every file carries a license note.
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Questions people ask
How far did METR's "AI model task time horizons" chart travel?
181,464 views, 864 likes, 69 reposts and 140 saves on X, read Oct 10, 2026. A normal post from @METR_Evals gets about 153K views.
What kind of chart is it?
A scatter plot. Model task time horizons grow with release date.
Can I use METR's chart?
Use the format, not the picture. The chart, logo and design belong to METR. ViralChart redraws the chart type with your numbers and words, and credits the original publisher.