Charts
Confidence Intervals on Model Strength

@arenaX · Aug 6, 2024

Confidence Intervals on Model Strength

@arena's scatter plot drew 81.3K views on X: 1.8x its median post and #426 of 1,162 AI chart posts we hold by views. Read Oct 12, 2026.

Mistral Large 2 leads Coding Arena ratings

XData Scatter plot Mistral Largeclaude-3-5-sonnet-20240620gpt-4o-2024-05-13gpt-4o-mini-2024-07-18llama-3.1-405b-instructgemini-1.5-pro-exp-0801mistral-large-2407gemini-1.5-pro-0514gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09

@arena: Confidence Intervals on Model Strength — Published by @arena on X, Aug 6, 2024. Source: x.com

60/ 100

ViralChart score

Wide but thin

More views than the median post but a lower engagement rate: many saw it, few acted. Common for big accounts.

#454 of 1,162 AI chart posts we hold · #85 of 239 @arena posts. Score = views 40%, likes 30%, engagement rate 15%, save rate 15%, each as a percentile of every AI chart post we hold.

Our read

The post sits in the Wide but thin quadrant, with a score rank of #454 of 1,162 AI chart posts.

Its 0.12% save rate sits at the 72nd percentile among AI chart posts, above the 0.076% median.

The post's 81.3K views are 1.8x @arena's 46.2K median, ranking #88 of 239 @arena posts.

A score of 60 places it #454 of 1,162 AI chart posts and #85 of 239 @arena posts.

3.6xthe median scatter plot post

Across 187 scatter plot posts we hold, the median gets 22.4K views.

0.35views per follower

81.3K views from an account with 234.1K followers.

top 28%save rate

0.121% of viewers bookmarked it to come back to. The median post gets 0.076%.

1.8x@arena's median post

81.3K views, where @arena's typical post gets 46.2K.

Public X numbers from our read on Oct 12, 2026. Peers: 1,162 AI chart posts we hold and 239 from @arena.

Where it sits

Reach against resonance

Each dot is a post. Right is more views, up is a higher engagement rate. The lines are the medians, so the four corners are the four kinds of post.

Among 1,162 AI chart posts we hold

Score #454 of 1,162

Views	81.3K	#426	top 37%
Likes	440	#481	top 41%
Engagement rate	0.64%	#667	bottom 43%
Save rate	0.121%	#330	top 28%

Among 239 @arena posts

Score #85 of 239

Views	81.3K	#88	top 37%
Likes	440	#97	top 40%
Engagement rate	0.64%	#130	bottom 46%
Save rate	0.121%	#50	top 21%

Growth

One read so far

Views81.3K

Age at our read797 days

Views per day of life102views divided by days since it was posted

Dots are our reads. The dotted line from the day it was posted to our first read is a gap, not data.

@arena's posts over time

Every post from this account we hold, by date and views. This one is marked; the line is the running median of the last 10.

News · Aug 6, 2024

@arena charts Confidence Intervals on Model Strength

A scatter plot on August 6, 2024, showing 25 models, drew 81.3K views and a 0.64% engagement rate.

What happened

@arena posted a scatter plot on Confidence Intervals on Model Strength on August 6, 2024. It was the account's only post that day.

The numbers

It reached 81.3K views, ranking #426 of 1,162 AI chart posts and #88 of 239 @arena posts. The score rank is #454 of 1,162 AI chart posts.

The lesson

A 0.12% save rate, at the 72nd percentile among AI chart posts, shows that a 25-model scatter plot can be saved above the 0.076% median even when engagement is thin.

What it means

At #85 of 239 @arena posts by score, this chart trails the account's own top posts despite 1.8x the median views, so wide reach alone does not lift its rank.

Written by ViralChart from public numbers read on Oct 12, 2026. Every number is checked against our data before it is shown.

Updates: what @arena posted next

Data and API

25 points read off this chart

Estimated from the image 41%

Group	Value	Read
claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620	1290	estimated
gpt-4o-2024-05-13	1285	estimated
gpt-4o-mini-2024-07-18	1275	estimated
llama-3.1-405b-instruct	1265	estimated
gemini-1.5-pro-exp-0801	1261	estimated
mistral-large-2407	1256.5	estimated
gemini-1.5-pro-0514	1250	estimated
gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09	1248	estimated
gemini-advanced-0514	1245	estimated
gpt-4-1106-preview	1240	estimated
athene-70b	1238	estimated
claude-3-opus-20240229	1235	estimated

Showing 12 of 25. All points, the redraw and the maker

Max plan · API

GET https://viral-chart.com/api/posts/4bcede8e9843.json
GET https://viral-chart.com/api/charts/4bcede8e9843.json
GET https://viral-chart.com/api/charts/4bcede8e9843.skill.md

Make one like this Open the post JSON Chart data JSON Skill file API docs

Static files in this prototype. The post JSON holds the public numbers, ranks, score, quadrant, our reads and, when checked, our copy.

API · Max

Use this chart via API

On the Max plan you can pull this chart's numbers with the provenance of each one, as JSON or CSV, with its redraw spec, or call it from an agent over MCP. Chart id 4bcede8e9843.

Approximate values. Our two readings of this chart agreed only in part (confidence 0.41 of 1), so check the original before you quote a number. The API marks it lowConfidence, and ?min_confidence=0.5 leaves it out.

See the Max plan API docs

	Path	Returns	Plan
GET	`/api/v1/charts/4bcede8e9843`	Title, publisher, date, form, point count; with a Max key, the data link	Open
GET	`/api/v1/charts/4bcede8e9843/data`	Every point with its provenance and confidence, plus the redraw spec. Add ?format=csv for CSV	Max
GET	`/api/v1/charts/4bcede8e9843/render?view=1`	The draw-only view this page uses	Open
POST	`/mcp`	Tool get_chart_data with this id, for Claude, Cursor and other agents	Max

curlMax

curl -s https://viral-chart.com/api/v1/charts/4bcede8e9843/data \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"

Claude CodeMax

claude mcp add --transport http viralchart https://viral-chart.com/mcp \
  --header "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"

60 requests a minute per key; over that you get 429 with Retry-After. Up to 5 keys per account, made on your account page and shown once. Without Max, the data route answers 402 with a link to the plans. The numbers describe a chart its publisher owns, and every file carries a license note.

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Questions people ask

Where does this chart come from?

@arena published it on Aug 6, 2024 on X (x.com). We keep it here, with the publisher and date credited as text, so you can study it without leaving.

Can I make a chart like this?

Use the format, not the picture. Open its data page and use Make one like this: it starts from this chart's numbers and takes yours.