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Confidence Intervals on Model Strength

@arenaX · Jan 22, 2025

Confidence Intervals on Model Strength

@arena's annotated chart drew 45.7K views on X: 1.0x its median post and #554 of 1,162 AI chart posts we hold by views. Read Oct 12, 2026.

Confidence intervals for image model ratings

XData Annotated chart Imagen All Google modelsimagen-3.0-generate-002recraft-v3ideogram-v2flux-1.1-prophotondall-e-3flux-1-dev-fp8stable-diffusion-v35-large

@arena: Confidence Intervals on Model Strength — Published by @arena on X, Jan 22, 2025. Source: x.com

32/ 100

ViralChart score

Wide but thin

More views than the median post but a lower engagement rate: many saw it, few acted. Common for big accounts.

#870 of 1,162 AI chart posts we hold · #191 of 239 @arena posts. Score = views 40%, likes 30%, engagement rate 15%, save rate 15%, each as a percentile of every AI chart post we hold.

Our read

The post sits in the Wide but thin quadrant, at #870 of 1,162 AI chart posts.

Its 0.19% engagement rate sits at the 4th percentile among AI chart posts, 0.25x the 0.73% median.

The score of 32 places it at #870 of 1,162 AI chart posts and #191 of 239 @arena posts.

It ranked #1 of 2 posts from this account that day, against 7.3K views for the other.

bottom 4%engagement rate

0.19% of viewers liked, reposted, quoted or replied. The median post gets 0.73%.

0.20views per follower

45.7K views from an account with 234.1K followers.

bottom 7%save rate

0.015% of viewers bookmarked it to come back to. The median post gets 0.076%.

2posts from @arena that day

Part of a run of 2 posts on Jan 22, 2025. This one was #1 of 2 by views that day.

Public X numbers from our read on Oct 12, 2026. Peers: 1,162 AI chart posts we hold and 239 from @arena.

Where it sits

Reach against resonance

Each dot is a post. Right is more views, up is a higher engagement rate. The lines are the medians, so the four corners are the four kinds of post.

Among 1,162 AI chart posts we hold

Score #870 of 1,162

Views	45.7K	#554	top 48%
Likes	73	#807	bottom 31%
Engagement rate	0.19%	#1,117	bottom 4%
Save rate	0.015%	#1,082	bottom 7%

Among 239 @arena posts

Score #191 of 239

Views	45.7K	#121	bottom 50%
Likes	73	#182	bottom 24%
Engagement rate	0.19%	#227	bottom 5%
Save rate	0.015%	#227	bottom 5%

Growth

One read so far

Views45.7K

Age at our read628 days

Views per day of life73views divided by days since it was posted

Dots are our reads. The dotted line from the day it was posted to our first read is a gap, not data.

@arena's posts over time

Every post from this account we hold, by date and views. This one is marked; the line is the running median of the last 10.

News · Jan 22, 2025

@arena charts confidence intervals for image model ratings

An annotated chart of confidence intervals for image model ratings drew 45.7K views and a 0.19% engagement rate.

What happened

@arena posted an annotated chart on January 22, 2025, covering confidence intervals for image model ratings. It was one of 2 posts from the account that day, alongside a post on average win rate against all other models.

The numbers

It reached 45.7K views, #554 of 1,162 AI chart posts, against a 39.9K median among AI chart posts. Its score of 32 ranks #870 of 1,162 AI chart posts and #191 of 239 @arena posts.

The lesson

The chart shows confidence intervals for 8 models, and its 0.19% engagement rate is 0.25x the 0.73% median among AI chart posts. A single annotated chart with 8 models drew 45.7K views but a 0.015% save rate.

What it means

At #191 of 239 @arena posts, this chart sits below the account's own median engagement of 0.68%. The 45.7K views clear the 39.9K median among AI chart posts, but the 0.19% engagement rate is 0.25x that median.

Written by ViralChart from public numbers read on Oct 12, 2026. Every number is checked against our data before it is shown.

Updates: what @arena posted next

Data and API

8 points read off this chart

Estimated from the image 72%

Group	Value	Read
imagen-3.0-generate-002	1096.5	estimated
recraft-v3	1035	estimated
ideogram-v2	1026.5	estimated
flux-1.1-pro	1021	estimated
photon	1021	estimated
dall-e-3	978	estimated
flux-1-dev-fp8	978	estimated
stable-diffusion-v35-large	945	estimated

Max plan · API

GET https://viral-chart.com/api/posts/978539f9ccb9.json
GET https://viral-chart.com/api/charts/978539f9ccb9.json
GET https://viral-chart.com/api/charts/978539f9ccb9.skill.md

Make one like this Open the post JSON Chart data JSON Skill file API docs

Static files in this prototype. The post JSON holds the public numbers, ranks, score, quadrant, our reads and, when checked, our copy.

API · Max

Use this chart via API

On the Max plan you can pull this chart's numbers with the provenance of each one, as JSON or CSV, with its redraw spec, or call it from an agent over MCP. Chart id 978539f9ccb9.

See the Max plan API docs

	Path	Returns	Plan
GET	`/api/v1/charts/978539f9ccb9`	Title, publisher, date, form, point count; with a Max key, the data link	Open
GET	`/api/v1/charts/978539f9ccb9/data`	Every point with its provenance and confidence, plus the redraw spec. Add ?format=csv for CSV	Max
GET	`/api/v1/charts/978539f9ccb9/render?view=1`	The draw-only view this page uses	Open
POST	`/mcp`	Tool get_chart_data with this id, for Claude, Cursor and other agents	Max

curlMax

curl -s https://viral-chart.com/api/v1/charts/978539f9ccb9/data \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"

Claude CodeMax

claude mcp add --transport http viralchart https://viral-chart.com/mcp \
  --header "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"

60 requests a minute per key; over that you get 429 with Retry-After. Up to 5 keys per account, made on your account page and shown once. Without Max, the data route answers 402 with a link to the plans. The numbers describe a chart its publisher owns, and every file carries a license note.

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Questions people ask

Where does this chart come from?

@arena published it on Jan 22, 2025 on X (x.com). We keep it here, with the publisher and date credited as text, so you can study it without leaving.

Can I make a chart like this?

Use the format, not the picture. Open its data page and use Make one like this: it starts from this chart's numbers and takes yours.