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Epoch AITable chart · 90 points · Epoch AI

LLMs have not yet solved the hardest problems on high school math contests

The numbers behind a chart Epoch AI published, redrawn natively. Check the original, study the data, then make your own.

Estimated from the image 41%All chart data
Chart by Epoch AI. Source: x.com

Simplified redraw

Drawn by us from the numbers below. Hover, tap or use the arrow keys.

A simplified redraw: it shows the numbers in our own look, not the look of the original. One accent marks what the chart is about. Values marked with ~ in the table are estimates.

The numbers

First 10 of 90 points are free
GroupSeriesValue (difficulty level)SourceConf.
AIME 1-3GPT 4o~42Estimate0.30
AIME 1-3o1 mini~83Estimate0.30
AIME 1-3o1 (medium)~96Estimate0.30
AIME 1-3DeepSeek R1~92Estimate0.30
AIME 1-3o3 mini (high)~100Estimate0.30
AIME 1-3Gemini 2.5 Pro~96Estimate0.30
AIME 1-3o4 mini (high)~100Estimate0.30
AIME 1-3GPT 5 (high)~100Estimate0.30
AIME 1-3Gemini Deep Think~100Estimate0.30
AIME 4-6GPT 4o~8Estimate0.30

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AIME 4-6o1 mini~83Estimate0.30
AIME 4-6o1 (medium)~92Estimate0.30
AIME 4-6DeepSeek R1~96Estimate0.30
AIME 4-6o3 mini (high)~92Estimate0.30
AIME 4-6Gemini 2.5 Pro~94Estimate0.30
AIME 4-6o4 mini (high)~94Estimate0.30
AIME 4-6GPT 5 (high)~100Estimate0.30
AIME 4-6Gemini Deep Think~100Estimate0.30
AIME 7-10GPT 4o5Estimate0.90
AIME 7-10o1 mini~50Estimate0.30
AIME 7-10o1 (medium)~88Estimate0.30
AIME 7-10DeepSeek R1~88Estimate0.30
AIME 7-10o3 mini (high)~46Estimate0.30
AIME 7-10Gemini 2.5 Pro~83Estimate0.30
AIME 7-10o4 mini (high)~96Estimate0.30
AIME 7-10GPT 5 (high)~96Estimate0.30
AIME 7-10Gemini Deep Think~100Estimate0.30
AIME 11-13GPT 4o~0Estimate0.30
AIME 11-13o1 mini~17Estimate0.30
AIME 11-13o1 (medium)~50Estimate0.30
AIME 11-13DeepSeek R1~31Estimate0.30
AIME 11-13o3 mini (high)~50Estimate0.30
AIME 11-13Gemini 2.5 Pro~44Estimate0.30
AIME 11-13o4 mini (high)~56Estimate0.30
AIME 11-13GPT 5 (high)~69Estimate0.30
AIME 11-13Gemini Deep Think~100Estimate0.30
AIME 14-15GPT 4o~0Estimate0.30
AIME 14-15o1 mini~25Estimate0.30
AIME 14-15o1 (medium)~25Estimate0.30
AIME 14-15DeepSeek R1~31Estimate0.30
AIME 14-15o3 mini (high)~50Estimate0.30
AIME 14-15Gemini 2.5 Pro~44Estimate0.30
AIME 14-15o4 mini (high)~56Estimate0.30
AIME 14-15GPT 5 (high)~69Estimate0.30
AIME 14-15Gemini Deep Think~100Estimate0.30
USAIMO/IMO 20-35GPT 4o~0Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 20-35o1 mini~0Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 20-35o1 (medium)~14Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 20-35DeepSeek R1~1Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 20-35o3 mini (high)~4Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 20-35Gemini 2.5 Pro~15Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 20-35o4 mini (high)~52Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 20-35GPT 5 (high)~39Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 20-35Gemini Deep Think~68Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 40-50GPT 4o~0Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 40-50o1 mini~0Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 40-50o1 (medium)~0Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 40-50DeepSeek R1~0Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 40-50o3 mini (high)~0Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 40-50Gemini 2.5 Pro~0Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 40-50o4 mini (high)~0Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 40-50GPT 5 (high)~0Estimate0.50
USAIMO/IMO 40-50Gemini Deep Think~0Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 20-35GPT 4o~7Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50GPT 4o~8Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50GPT 4o~9Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 20-35o1 mini~7Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50o1 mini~8Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50o1 mini~9Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 20-35o1 (medium)~7Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50o1 (medium)~8Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50o1 (medium)~9Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 20-35DeepSeek R1~7Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50DeepSeek R1~8Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50DeepSeek R1~9Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 20-35o3 mini (high)~7Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50o3 mini (high)~8Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50o3 mini (high)~9Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 20-35Gemini 2.5 Pro~7Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50Gemini 2.5 Pro~8Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50Gemini 2.5 Pro~9Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 20-35o4 mini (high)~7Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50o4 mini (high)~8Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50o4 mini (high)~9Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 20-35GPT 5 (high)~7Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50GPT 5 (high)~8Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50GPT 5 (high)~9Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 20-35Gemini Deep Think~7Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50Gemini Deep Think~8Estimate0.50
USAMO/IMO MOHS 40-50Gemini Deep Think~9Estimate0.50
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On the Max plan you can pull this chart's numbers with the provenance of each one, as JSON or CSV, with its redraw spec, or call it from an agent over MCP. Chart id bc23d4fa90c2.

Approximate values. Our two readings of this chart agreed only in part (confidence 0.41 of 1), so check the original before you quote a number. The API marks it lowConfidence, and ?min_confidence=0.5 leaves it out.

See the Max planAPI docs
PathReturnsPlan
GET/api/v1/charts/bc23d4fa90c2Title, publisher, date, form, point count; with a Max key, the data linkOpen
GET/api/v1/charts/bc23d4fa90c2/dataEvery point with its provenance and confidence, plus the redraw spec. Add ?format=csv for CSVMax
GET/api/v1/charts/bc23d4fa90c2/render?view=1The draw-only view this page usesOpen
POST/mcpTool get_chart_data with this id, for Claude, Cursor and other agentsMax
curlMax
curl -s https://viral-chart.com/api/v1/charts/bc23d4fa90c2/data \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"
Claude CodeMax
claude mcp add --transport http viralchart https://viral-chart.com/mcp \
  --header "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"

60 requests a minute per key; over that you get 429 with Retry-After. Up to 5 keys per account, made on your account page and shown once. Without Max, the data route answers 402 with a link to the plans. The numbers describe a chart its publisher owns, and every file carries a license note.

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More data from Epoch AI

All chart data
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Questions people ask

How accurate are these numbers?

They are estimated from the image by two independent passes, with confidence 0.41 on a 0 to 1 scale. Printed numbers read well; values read off an axis can be a few percent off.

Can I reuse this data?

The numbers describe a chart that Epoch AI published. The image, layout and styling belong to them. Use the numbers with a credit to the publisher, and make your picture from your own data.

How do I get the file?

The JSON, CSV and agent skill file are under the email gate on this page. In this prototype they are static files at /api/charts/bc23d4fa90c2.json and /api/charts/bc23d4fa90c2.skill.md.