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- Federal Spending - DOGE Balanced (Assuming 2019 @ 2.5% CAGR)

Federal Spending - DOGE Balanced (Assuming 2019 @ 2.5% CAGR)
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The numbers
First 10 of 82 points are free| Group | Series | Value ($B) | Source | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Spending | FY19 (Actual) | 4447 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Total Spending | FY24 (Estimate) | 6752 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Total Spending | FY24 (Baseline) | 5031 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Total Spending | Delta to Baseline | 1721 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Total Spending | % | ~34 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| As % of GDP | FY19 (Actual) | 21 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| As % of GDP | FY24 (Estimate) | 24 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| As % of GDP | FY24 (Baseline) | 18 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Mandatory Spending | FY19 (Actual) | 2735 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Mandatory Spending | FY24 (Estimate) | 4014 | Estimate | 0.97 |

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| Mandatory Spending | FY24 (Baseline) | 3094 | Estimate | 0.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandatory Spending | Delta to Baseline | 920 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Mandatory Spending | % | ~30 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Medicare (health for elderly) | FY19 (Actual) | ~1038 | Estimate | 0.30 |
| Medicare (health for elderly) | FY24 (Estimate) | 870 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Medicare (health for elderly) | FY24 (Baseline) | 729 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Medicare (health for elderly) | Delta to Baseline | 141 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Medicare (health for elderly) | % | ~19 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Medicaid (health for poor) | FY19 (Actual) | 409 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Medicaid (health for poor) | FY24 (Estimate) | 618 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Medicaid (health for poor) | FY24 (Baseline) | 463 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Medicaid (health for poor) | Delta to Baseline | 155 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Medicaid (health for poor) | % | ~34 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Social Security | FY19 (Actual) | ~1002 | Estimate | 0.30 |
| Social Security | FY24 (Estimate) | 1448 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Social Security | FY24 (Baseline) | 1174 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Social Security | Delta to Baseline | 274 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Social Security | % | ~23 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Unemployment & welfare | FY19 (Actual) | 302 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Unemployment & welfare | FY24 (Estimate) | 551 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Unemployment & welfare | FY24 (Baseline) | 342 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Unemployment & welfare | Delta to Baseline | 209 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Unemployment & welfare | % | ~61 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Federal pensions, student loans, agriculture | FY19 (Actual) | 342 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Federal pensions, student loans, agriculture | FY24 (Estimate) | 527 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Federal pensions, student loans, agriculture | FY24 (Baseline) | 387 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Federal pensions, student loans, agriculture | Delta to Baseline | 140 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Federal pensions, student loans, agriculture | % | ~36 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Discretionary Spending | FY19 (Actual) | 1337 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Discretionary Spending | FY24 (Estimate) | 1789 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Discretionary Spending | FY24 (Baseline) | 1513 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Discretionary Spending | Delta to Baseline | 276 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Discretionary Spending | % | ~18 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Defense | FY19 (Actual) | 676 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Defense | FY24 (Estimate) | 826 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Defense | FY24 (Baseline) | 765 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Defense | Delta to Baseline | 61 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Defense | % | ~8 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Education, housing, transportation | FY19 (Actual) | 661 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Education, housing, transportation | FY24 (Estimate) | 963 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Education, housing, transportation | FY24 (Baseline) | 748 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Education, housing, transportation | Delta to Baseline | 215 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Education, housing, transportation | % | ~29 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Net Interest | FY19 (Actual) | 375 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Net Interest | FY24 (Estimate) | 949 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Net Interest | FY24 (Baseline) | 424 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Net Interest | Delta to Baseline | 525 | Estimate | 0.97 |
| Net Interest | % | ~124 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Total Spending | Spending Category | ~4447 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| As % of GDP | Spending Category | ~21 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Mandatory Spending | Spending Category | ~2735 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Social Security | Spending Category | ~1038 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Medicare (health for elderly) | Spending Category | ~644 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Medicaid (health for poor) | Spending Category | ~409 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Unemployment & welfare | Spending Category | ~302 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Federal pensions, student loans, agriculture | Spending Category | ~342 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Discretionary Spending | Spending Category | ~1337 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Defense | Spending Category | ~676 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Education, housing, transportation | Spending Category | ~661 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Net Interest | Spending Category | ~375 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| As % of GDP | Delta to Baseline | ~6 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Total Spending | % | ~34 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Mandatory Spending | % | ~30 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Social Security | % | ~23 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Medicare (health for elderly) | % | ~19 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Medicaid (health for poor) | % | ~34 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Unemployment & welfare | % | ~61 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Federal pensions, student loans, agriculture | % | ~36 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Discretionary Spending | % | ~18 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Defense | % | ~8 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Education, housing, transportation | % | ~29 | Estimate | 0.50 |
| Net Interest | % | ~124 | Estimate | 0.50 |
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