1. Chart data
  2. R&D Scores are collected from leaderboards and model cards,
Epoch AILine chart · 59 points · Epoch AI

R&D Scores are collected from leaderboards and model cards, on track to be solved by 2030

The numbers behind a chart Epoch AI published, redrawn natively. Check the original, study the data, then make your own.

Estimated from the image 62%All chart data
Chart by Epoch AI. Source: x.com

Simplified redraw

Drawn by us from the numbers below. Hover, tap or use the arrow keys.

A simplified redraw: it shows the numbers in our own look, not the look of the original. One accent marks what the chart is about. Values marked with ~ in the table are estimates.

The numbers

First 10 of 59 points are free
GroupSeriesxValueSourceConf.
SWE-bench Verified2023.52024~5%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2024.22024.2~10%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2024.52024.4~20%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2024.62024.5~25%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2024.72024.6~30%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2024.82024.7~34%Estimate0.65
SWE-bench Verified2024.92024.8~39%Estimate0.65
SWE-bench Verified2025.02024.9~45%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2025.12025~50%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2025.32025.2~60%Estimate0.80

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See all 59 points and download the files

The full table, the JSON, a CSV and the agent skill file for this chart. These are Max in the plan; while this is a prototype your email unlocks them.

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SWE-bench Verified2025.52025.4~70%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2025.72025.6~80%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2025.92025.8~85%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2026.02026~89%Estimate0.65
SWE-bench Verified2027.02027~95%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2028.02028~97.5%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2029.02029~98.5%Estimate0.80
SWE-bench Verified2030.02030~99.5%Estimate0.80
ProtocolQA2024.02024~5%Estimate0.80
ProtocolQA2024.52024.5~10%Estimate0.80
ProtocolQA2025.02025~19%Estimate0.65
ProtocolQA2025.22025.2~25%Estimate0.80
ProtocolQA2025.42025.4~30%Estimate0.30
ProtocolQA2025.52025.6~41%Estimate0.65
ProtocolQA2025.62025.8~50%Estimate0.80
ProtocolQA2025.82026~60%Estimate0.80
ProtocolQA2026.02026.5~70%Estimate0.80
ProtocolQA2026.52027~80%Estimate0.80
ProtocolQA2028.02028~90%Estimate0.80
ProtocolQA2030.02029~95%Estimate0.80
ProtocolQA2029.02030~98%Estimate0.30
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32024.52024~2%Estimate0.80
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32025.02024.5~5%Estimate0.80
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32025.22025~10%Estimate0.80
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32025.42025.2~15%Estimate0.80
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32025.52025.4~20%Estimate0.80
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32025.72025.6~30%Estimate0.80
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32025.92025.8~40%Estimate0.80
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32026.02026~50%Estimate0.30
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32026.52026.5~60%Estimate0.80
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32027.02027~70%Estimate0.80
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32028.02028~80%Estimate0.80
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32030.02029~89%Estimate0.65
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32029.02030~95%Estimate0.30
SWE-bench Verified2024.02024~8%Estimate0.30
SWE-bench Verified2024.42024.4~15%Estimate0.30
SWE-bench Verified2025.22025.2~55%Estimate0.30
SWE-bench Verified2025.42025.4~65%Estimate0.30
SWE-bench Verified2025.62025.6~75%Estimate0.30
SWE-bench Verified2025.82025.8~82%Estimate0.30
SWE-bench Verified2026.52026.5~92%Estimate0.30
ProtocolQA2023.52023.5~3%Estimate0.30
ProtocolQA2025.72025.7~55%Estimate0.30
ProtocolQA2025.92025.9~65%Estimate0.30
ProtocolQA2027.02027~85%Estimate0.30
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32023.52023.5~0%Estimate0.30
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32024.02024~1%Estimate0.30
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32025.62025.6~25%Estimate0.30
FrontierMath Tiers 1-32025.82025.8~35%Estimate0.30
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JSONAgent skill file

API · Max

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On the Max plan you can pull this chart's numbers with the provenance of each one, as JSON or CSV, with its redraw spec, or call it from an agent over MCP. Chart id 4ae0dcc0d003.

See the Max planAPI docs
PathReturnsPlan
GET/api/v1/charts/4ae0dcc0d003Title, publisher, date, form, point count; with a Max key, the data linkOpen
GET/api/v1/charts/4ae0dcc0d003/dataEvery point with its provenance and confidence, plus the redraw spec. Add ?format=csv for CSVMax
GET/api/v1/charts/4ae0dcc0d003/render?view=1The draw-only view this page usesOpen
POST/mcpTool get_chart_data with this id, for Claude, Cursor and other agentsMax
curlMax
curl -s https://viral-chart.com/api/v1/charts/4ae0dcc0d003/data \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"
Claude CodeMax
claude mcp add --transport http viralchart https://viral-chart.com/mcp \
  --header "Authorization: Bearer $VIRALCHART_KEY"

60 requests a minute per key; over that you get 429 with Retry-After. Up to 5 keys per account, made on your account page and shown once. Without Max, the data route answers 402 with a link to the plans. The numbers describe a chart its publisher owns, and every file carries a license note.

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More data from Epoch AI

All chart data
Estimated from the imageIn August, 25% of math preprints acknowledged AI use, up from 4% in AprilEpoch AI · Line chart · 44 pointsEstimated from the imageWith domestic HBM only, Huawei's AI compute production could stay around 1% of Nvidia's through 2028Epoch AI · Grouped bar chart · 6 pointsEstimated from the imageIncreasing lead times may lead to a substantial deceleration in compute investment scalingEpoch AI · Scatter plot · 12 pointsEstimated from the imageBenchmark ReviewsEpoch AI · Table chart · 15 pointsEstimated from the imageGPT-5 is an incremental update to the frontier, but a major leap from GPT-4Epoch AI · Line chart · 40 pointsEstimated from the imageClaude Opus 5.5 edges ahead on ECI, with Sonnet 5.5 in third placeEpoch AI · Scatter plot · 61 points

Questions people ask

How accurate are these numbers?

They are estimated from the image by two independent passes, with confidence 0.62 on a 0 to 1 scale. Printed numbers read well; values read off an axis can be a few percent off.

Can I reuse this data?

The numbers describe a chart that Epoch AI published. The image, layout and styling belong to them. Use the numbers with a credit to the publisher, and make your picture from your own data.

How do I get the file?

The JSON, CSV and agent skill file are under the email gate on this page. In this prototype they are static files at /api/charts/4ae0dcc0d003.json and /api/charts/4ae0dcc0d003.skill.md.