Fed Rate Probabilities

The average Russell 1,000 stock is now 23% below its 52-week high. Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Technology are even weaker at -26% or worse.

The semis are now in their 4th 10%+ correction since early June. That's the most corrections inside a window that small since late 2002. $SOXX $SMH

Banks trailing S&P 500 by 11 percentage points in month leading up to earnings season. Since 2001, the only earnings seasons when they lagged by a wider margin were Q1 2023 (-25.5 ppts) and Q4 08 (-15.8 ppts).

AI demand is driving significant inflation pressure in consumer tech, as evidenced by the computers & peripherals category in today's CPI release:

Despite a 2% drop today, the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ managed to just barely hang onto its 50-DMA:

Cool chart showing the fastest sector rallies to 50%+ YTD since 1990. Energy's 50%+ YTD move through yesterday was the 5th fastest to up 50%+ in any year for any sector since 1990. Energy did it in less than half the t

98% of US households aren't paying for AI yet More charts in State of Markets II:

Call center jobs grew ~4% annually for 15 years Now they’re shrinking 4% annually Charts of the Week:

DeepSeek takes the lead: DeepSeek V3-0324 is now the highest scoring non-reasoning model This is the first time an open weights model is the leading non-reasoning model, a milestone for open source. DeepSeek V3-0324 ha

America has 16,876 machine shops. 83% employ fewer than 20 people. Just nine employ more than 500. New defense companies are moving from prototypes to mass production, and every missile, drone, ship, and rocket they ul

Memory is taking over Hyperscaler CapEx. In CY23 and CY24, memory was ~8% of total Hyperscaler spend. We estimate it hits 30% in CY26 and moves higher in CY27. That's a near-4x shift in just four years. (1/4) 🧵

Beef production has been the largest driver of deforestation this century. Over the last two decades, around 128 million hectares of forest have been cleared to make way for agriculture and forest plantations. That’s an